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世論調査の信頼性 An Issue of Reliability of Public Opinion Poll 岡田, 至雄 世論調査 信頼性 信頼度係数 協力姿勢 公共報道機関 調査主題 嘘偽回答 真実回答 Public opinion poll reliability index of reliability cooperative attitude toward Poll organs of public opinion research theme false answer (doubtful answer) true answer (reliable answer) 関西大学 Kansai University 公共報道機関が公表する世論調査のデータが民意を反映していないと診る人は、調査内容にもよるが意外に多い。被調査者が質問に対して常に真実を正確に答えてくれるならば、データの信頼性を疑う余地はほとんどない。しかし、調査にウソはつきものという定見は、この種の世論調査では払拭しきれず、この思い込みはデータへの懸念に転写され、同時に自身の調査に対する潜在的協力姿勢がこれに増幅し「データは信頼できない」と診断される。小稿は人が世論調査の標本として選定されたときに示す協力姿勢や回答の構えを精査することによって、データの信頼性について検証する。 This paper is an attempt to ascertain doubtful points concerning the reliability of public opinion polls. A basic problem for all research relates directly to reliability. The main theme of reliability dealt with here, is whether or not the respondents answer questions truthfully. What is necessary is that all answers presented by the respondent are the truth. It must be kept in mind that we are now discussing whether a question elicits the truth from respondents, not a problem of a mere statistical reliability. It is presumed that the primary guarantee of truthtelling is to obtain a positive cooperation of the respondents in the research field. It follows that their attitudes towards the researcher and/or the researche theme will have much influence on the nature of their cooperation. Differences in cooperativity, namely "agreeably cooperative", "reluctantly cooperative", "uncooperative" and "refusing to cooperate", exerts an important effect on the reliability of a given answer. Such matters as devices for checking whether respondents have told the truth and/or developments in the statistical measurement of reliability are secondary and derivative in comparison with the issue of the respondents' cooperative attitude. 関西大学社会学部 1996-12-25 jpn departmental bulletin paper VoR http://hdl.handle.net/10112/00022491 https://kansai-u.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/18443 AN00046982 02876817 関西大学社会学部紀要 28 2 1 25 https://kansai-u.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/18443/files/KU-1100-19961225-01.pdf application/pdf 2.5 MB 2021-02-01